GO AXC?
I thought I would try it out for size. I am not at all surprised to see AXC struggle to get through the 1 1/16 resistance. There were almost 5 weeks of support at this level. My StockBlocks tool shows that there is about again as much volume needed since 10/8 to chew through the overhang. However, the price and volume looks good on the daily and on the interday charts. This overhead should give way.
Upon ruminating on the recent developments, especially the decline in sales, the lost legal appeal and the dreadful share price, it could all be a good thing. Sometimes, adversity, when it comes in big doses serves as a wake up call to the complacent and firm minded.
Assets of the intangible as well as the measurable kind Ampex has. The recent assignment of the advertising account to a top firm and the soon to be COO restructuring with the added mix of new talent from the MicroNet side may be enough of a catalyst to get a jump start. The follow on of the "Co Location Hosting" vision is still too nebulous to even speculate on. However, it could only help.
Taking a queue from Andy Grove's book, it is now time to follow through on the "morph" of the company. I don't think that Mr. B has much choice. In fact, I think that he is under a lot of pressure to organize a response, both self induced and from his associates.
It is different with high tech companies. They periodically go through obselesence to re-invigoration. The product life cycles can be short. The antidote is vision, toleration and innovation. With the new players, the mix is better than ever. With the dismal results of the recent past, the incentive is ever greater to take that innovative entrepreneurial chance.
Speaking of which, the two books which helped me a great deal in these matters was A.Grove "Only the Paranoid Survive" and G. Moore "Gurrilla Investing". If you invest in high tech, read them both.
Also came upon the following in Rich Kargaard's (publisher Forbes) column "Digital rules" (Oct 12, 1998 p39). The context was the road to ruin for a technology company namely the services business. Contrasted to this was:
"This is the wrong time to pursue service-income growth. The internet tilts the tables in favor of digital processing power, bandwidth and software products that scale. ... survival depends on .. becoming lean, mean, gritty--and, in particular, Web and software savvy.
The only path to redemption is to wow customers with great products lashed to the growing power of chips, bandwidth and software."
So, believe it or not, the future for Ampex lies not in today's revenue stream but in the direction in which the current vision will take them. As investors in a high tech venture, our role should be to discount this future by anticipating how Ampex is nibbling at the envelope edge.
Ed Perry
Gheez I feel like I just wrote a speech. Maybe I should stand up when I type. Anyway, thanks Hal, I got the package today. Always enjoy a good classic. |
