VOTERS WILL DECIDE BILL'S FATE
By DEBORAH ORIN
THERE are just 12 days to Election Day, and just
about every sign points to a boom year for
Republicans around the nation.
Forget all the White House spin about how
President Clinton is demanding that impeachment
be conducted the way he wants. On Nov. 4, the
morning after the election, the verdict will be in.
Analysts can blather on all they like, claiming this
election isn't about Sexgate, just about local
contests. This is a democracy, so the results will
send a message on whether to punish Clinton -
and how hard.
If Republicans gain just a few House and Senate
seats, the impeachment drive likely will fizzle. But
if the GOP picks up 15 House seats and five
Senate seats - for a filibuster-proof 60 - Clinton's
critics will be raring to go.
To the horror of some fellow GOPers, House
Speaker Newt Gingrich yesterday gleefully
predicted his party could wind up with close to 40
more House seats - if everything breaks for us.
A new poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research
Center shows Republicans have a 5-point edge in
congressional elections among those most likely
to vote. That's about what polls conducted by
political pros - as opposed to some TV networks -
have shown all along.
But what about the messy middle? What if
Republicans gain, say eight House seats and two
or three Senate seats? Then the real question may
be how angry fellow Democrats, particularly
senators, are at Clinton for how he has devastated
their party over the past six years.
On Clinton's watch, the number of Dem senators
has slid from 57 to 45, House Dems are down
from 258 to 206, and Democratic governors have
dwindled from 30 to 17. Dems are likely to slip
further by every measure on Nov. 3 as the Radon
President continues to devastate his party.
Republicans may have the jitters about trying to
kick out a president, but there could be a
post-election push for strong punishment if
mad-at-Clinton Democrats join them.
Dems are frazzled with fear that Clinton could
make history again - by helping elect a record
number of Republicans (59 or more) to the U.S.
Senate.
Thanks a lot, Bill - there's your legacy, grumps a
Democratic strategist
Since senators were first popularly elected in 1914
(until then, state legislatures chose them), the
record number for Republicans is 59, set back in
1921-23.
This year, analysts predict Republicans, now at
55, could go up to 59 or 60.
The parties expect to trade Senate seats in Ohio
and Indiana. After that, there are seven seriously
at-risk Democratic Senate seats but only two
Republican seats, including Al D'Amato's.
The Senate, which will decide Clinton's fate if he's
impeached, isn't as partisan as the House, so
Clinton can't count on blind support against any
punishment.
Most of the Senate's Democratic leaders of
conscience - Sens. Joe Lieberman (Conn.), Daniel
P. Moynihan (N.Y.), Bob Kerrey (Neb.) and Bob
Byrd (W. Va.) have sharply denounced Clinton's
behavior.
Insiders insist several others - like Mary Landrieu
(La.), Max Cleland (Ga.) and Tim Johnson (S.D.) -
are livid, too. And Clinton can't count on
endangered Sens. Fritz Hollings (S.C.) and Harry
Reid (Nev.) to back him if they win re-election in
contests made far harder by Sexgate.
That is why the White House knows full well it may
be reading Clinton's fate when it reads the election
returns on Nov. 3.
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