My current predictions on Congressional races:
Clinton scandal will have no net effect. Off-year elections are always bad for the President's party. This year will be no worse than the norm; i.e. Dems lose 2-3 seats in Senate; 6-10 in the House. In fact, the scandal has the most effect in a positive way. Swing state voters (Washington, NC, Kentucky, Ohio, California) are showing much more support for the President than the deep South. The backlash against House Republicans may bounce a few key races to the Dems: Jay Inslee and Linda Smith in Washington, Lauch Faircloth in NC, Bob Inglis in SC, John Ensign in Nevada.
For the Senate, I call the following key races: Dems pick up two out of these three--NY (D'Amato), NC (Faircloth) and Indiana (Coats). Republicans pick up four of these five: KY (Ford), CA (Boxer), OH (Glenn), IL (Mosely Braun), and SC (Hollings).
WI (Feingold), ARK (Lincoln), FL (Graham), NV (Reid)and WA (Murray) remain in the Democratic fold.
What do you think?
Doughboy. |
