>>wing state voters (Washington, NC, Kentucky, Ohio, California) are showing much more support for the President than the deep South. The backlash against House Republicans may bounce a few key races to the Dems: Jay Inslee and Linda Smith in Washington, Lauch Faircloth in NC, Bob Inglis in SC, John Ensign in Nevada.
Actually, you have it backwards. Swing voters are joining the Republicans in competitive races. I expect all of the above the races you mentioned to go to the Republicans.
This election is shaping up to be a reprise of 1994. Wouldn't it be just great if Tuttle beat Leahy in VT? That would be divine.
btw, Inslee should never go on camera, he's a feckless speaker - when you can understand him, that is.
HEY, REPUBLICANS: CHEER UP!
By WILLIAM KRISTOL
FRIENDS, Republicans, countrymen: Cheer up!
(Especially Republicans.) The GOP will do well on
Election Day, capping the best three elections
cycles for a political party since the Democrats in
the 1930s.
Contrary to Democratic spin, media bias, and
liberal wishful thinking, the Republicans do look
strong for Nov. 3. In the past week, most polls
have shown Republicans ahead among likely
voters in the generic congressional ballot. And
Republicans always do better on Election Day
than mid-October polls suggest: They outspend
the Democrats in the last two weeks, and their
voters turn out in greater numbers than
pre-election surveys usually foresee.
There was a front-page Washington Post story
last week that particularly depressed Republicans
(who are all too easily depressed by unfavorable
Post stories). It was a report on the Post's own
poll that highlighted an alleged 9-point Democratic
lead. As it happened, the lead among likely voters
was only 4 points - and even that contrasts with
Newsweek and New York Times polls showing
Republican leads among likely voters of 4 to 8
points. Note, too, that the Washington Post in
October 1996 had Democrats with an even larger
lead over Republicans among registered voters -
and the GOP nevertheless held both chambers of
Congress.
What's more, the dynamics this year are more
favorable to Republicans than in 1996. We have a
GOP Congress that has produced a tax cut and a
budget surplus rather than a government
shutdown; a president on the verge of
impeachment rather than on the verge of
re-election - and most telling of all, total hysteria
among liberal columnists about the impending
victory of Kenneth Starr and everything he
represents: "sexual McCarthyism," the Salem
witch trials, the rise of the GOP's "Taliban wing"
and other frightening phenomena.
It is a reliable rule of American politics: Hysteria on
the op-ed page of the New York Times is a
harbinger of good news for Republicans, glad
tidings for conservatives.
The GOP strategy for the remaining two weeks of
the election campaign is pretty obvious: a soft,
positive, moderately conservative message that
reassures swing voters. Republicans don't have to
raise the issue of Clinton and his coming
impeachment; they can count on an undercurrent
of disgust at Clinton and the party that props him
up to drive GOP voters to the polls. And to win
over less partisan, less anti-Clinton types - who
may be wary of impeachment - Republicans can
tout the reasonably good times that four years of a
GOP Congress has brought.
There are, it's true, big splits in the Republican
Party. Those splits will lead to a fierce debate
among presidential contenders for 2000. But for
now, Republicans have a simple task: Get along
with one another for two weeks, appear cheerful
and unthreatening, and wind up after Nov. 3 in the
best position they've had in 70 years.
Then they can concentrate on their real mission -
to drive New York Times contributors and other
liberal muckety-mucks nuts.
nypost.com |
