Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31026)	10/22/1998 5:18:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (8) of 95453

Slide -- Never have I seen you at a loss for "why". But you are right. As readers of the ODB newsletter know, I don't see any reason for a rally of any significant duration. I don't think tax selling has hit yet for these stocks. I sit here and wonder why people think these stocks are so under valued. Why they are such "great" companies (are they great because you own them and have read a little about them? ((not you slider). How can anyone forecast rigday rates to move higher. Hell, the guys who run oil companies AND drilling contractors can't even predict that -- so how can you? (not you slider) That's what has to happen for the drillers to start making more money -- there must be higher day rates. That's how driller make money...no other way. I talked to a major oil company drilling department TODAY...they have an offshore rig with multi years left on the contract and they want to bail -- TODAY. You folks that don't understand how drillers make money better not get all excited in the face of this rally. These gains can be sucked away in a heart beat -- because they are NOT based on fundamentals. The decline suffered over the past 12 months was always "in spite" of the great fundamentals...well we were all tricked. Lower oil prices translated to lower service sector earnings faster than ANYONE thought. May the prices go to the moon...but you wouldn't catch me putting in a dime right now unless it was for a trade and even then it would be with a very tight trailing stop. I don't care if I miss 30% or more on the upside. It's not worth the risk. But if I had to buy one today to hold for a spell it would be VRC. big loosbrock.com

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