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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII)

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To: gdichaz who wrote (8877)10/22/1998 6:07:00 PM
From: Bernard Levy  Read Replies (2) of 12468
 
Hi Chaz:

LU obtained its P-MP technology when it purchased the LMDS
division of HP last year. As an aside, NT got its P-MP
technology when it purchased Broadband Networks (BNI), and
Bosch Telecom obtained its P-MP system from Texas Instruments
when TI decided to focus on DSP chips and to divest itself
of non-core business assets. The first generation systems
currently marketed by LU, NT and Bosch Telecom use a relatively
low capacity modulation scheme called QPSK (quadrature
phasew shift keying) whose capacity is 1.6bits/Hz/sec.

PCMS is developing much higher capacity components with
operating frequencies extending from 2GHz to 40GHz,
which use QAM (quadrature amplitude modulation). 4-QAM
is identical to QPSK, but 16 QAM has twice the capacity of
QPSK, and 64-QAM has 3 times the capacity. Note however
that higher order QAM signals require a much higher signal
to noise ratio, i.e., a very clean wireless link.

Newbridge Networks is also a big player in the P-MP
market.

I am not keeping track of all contracts wins, but
TGNT will use NT as you noted, NN won the contracts
for the two Canadian LMDS licensees, LU won contracts
with Winstar and ARTT, Bosch Telecom won a big contract
for the city of Buenos Aires in Argentina, as well
as a contract in Mexico. Finally NT, PCMS/Siemens and
Hughes won smaller contracts from Winstar.

The other component of P-MP systems is the wireless
networking software needed to allocate bandwidth to users.
Current solutions are in the form of wireless ATM because
of its support of QOS and compatibility with wired
networking traffic, but a San Diego startup (I forgot its
name) if also involved in a wireless IP solution. The
difference is that while wireless ATM uses cells of
fixed length, the wireless IP solution uses blocks of
variable length, so that it can be viewed as a wireless
Ethernet scheme. The players in the wireless software area
include Stanford Telecom (it used to be a partner of HP
before LU took over the HP LMDS division, it is now
closely aligned with NN and Alcatel), CSCO (partner of
Bosch Telecom-- note that CSCO has bought several wireless
companies recently), Netro (private company), BAY (now
part of NT). I am sure I am missing some other companies.

Who besides TGNT and Winstar is interested in P-MP
equipment: all fixed broadband wireless operators. In the US,
this includes the LMDS license winners (bigger players:
WNP, Nextband,), and MMDS operators (most of them are in
bad shape, but BellSouth is pushing MMDS very strongly).
Abroad, the market is wide open, and I expect tremendous
demand in Europe, South America and Asia in the coming
10 years. So with its Siemens partnership, PCMS could
do all right, but I expect a very lean period in the
near future. If LU is patient, it could snatch PCMS
at a very good price.

Best regards,

Benard Levy
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