The JDEC thread is an unusual place to have this far ranging a discussion.
But if the thread doesn't seem to care we can continue it here.
KEA
KEA isn't a Y2K services company. It is a consulting company (read body shop) that hung out a Y2K shingle to round up some business. They also have a relatively robust JDEC practice, which in and of itself has nothing to do with Y2K, other than JDEC is seeing some business because companies are switching from older packages that may not be Y2K compliant, e.g. CA Masterpiece, to JDE One World and KEA has some expertise there. KEA is active at an account that I do business with and they seem to have a better handle on JDEC's product than a lot of the JDEC guys that show up from time to time.
Body shops, KEA and a bit about JDEC...
I think that all these body shop companies have pushed rates about as high as they can for 1999 and they aren't able to manufacture people with expertise to continue to grow at the pace they have so there is probably a great deal of legitimacy in all of them leveling off here. I might caution you about KEA for that reason, not anything to do with Y2K or a Y2K product offering of theirs. I saw KEA charging $125/hour for people with little to no Oracle or JDEC experience in accounts trying to implement JDEC One World on ORCL. The clients tolerate this for a while and then boot them, for two reasons - they are not worth the money, and even God couldn't make One World work for a big company on ORCL on UNIX so a rookie consultant sure as hell isn't going to. Even the most inexperienced customers figure this out, but only after spending $50K or so on the person.
On to SYMC...
SYMC has good Java products. They are head to head with NETA in 'no price' land and that is a problem. All these MSFT suck along products that exist because of fundamental deficiencies in Windows (all versions) are getting beaten up on price. SYMC's Visual Cafe is a very good Java tool. My point wasn't to recommend SYMC at all, although it certainly looks interesting at prices like these, but rather to point out that all these companies that have BODIES who are focused on Y2K will need to find some other revenue producing activity for them over the next 24 months, and Java/HTML/SQL would be a good career path for their employees and a good revenue producer for them as organizations.
Ravi's list...
Ravi mentions a list of acronyms in his response and I wouldn't tar them all with the same brush. For example, FRTE is languishing because they are a boutique development toolsuite that never gained mainstream acceptance and they are trying to survive in a marketplace where the average web application development manager doesn't really know what tool suite to select, but I doubt FRTE even exists on their radar screen. Basically, FRTE is selling to its installed base. I doubt even 20% of their sales are to new customers. I have it on my 'Going Nowhere' portfolio list. FRTE is dead, whereas PSFT is on sabbatical. In 2000 PSFT will be the only integrated tool suite that will perform over a wide area network unless ORCL gets its head out of its butt and gets its rewrite done. SAP couldn't possible rewrite their app suite to be a Web app or Tuxedo app by 2000 so as far as I'm concerned they will NEVER see the levels they saw earlier this year, but PSFT could own the world in the new millennium.
PSFT and ERP vendors...
Like I said, PSFT is a totally different matter. PSFT has seen incredible sales, and very short sales cycles as companies rush to replace aging systems in advance of Y2K. We are now on the back side of that bell curve for them because it takes more than 14 months to install all this stuff, i.e. it is too late to buy the suite of PSFT apps and get them in before Y2K, so start patching and ride it out. So now a PSFT potential buyer who knows they have 14 months to make a decision is sending out the BIG RFP with all the questions to SAP, ORCL, PSFT, etc., and these guys are calling it 'increased competition'. They are lowering prices to try and buy these sales and calling it 'price pressure'. This is all just crap. They will be giving their software away by the end of Q2 next year. It will be a very tough time at sales club next year for the PSFT, MANU, ITWO, JDEC, BAANF, JDAS and SAP sales guys.
PSFT was honest in their quarterly report. Too bad for them. Maybe they should have taken the JDEC approach and say 'we don't see a slowing in sales next year as a result of Y2K issues as the yohos at JDEC did in their recent conference call'. They are blind, stupid or both. When the Gartner 1999 IT budget surveys come out all the blinders will be off. PSFT already bit the bullet. SAP was forthright as well. Are they a buy at these levels? No. Come April or May of next year you could STILL see them at 1/2 these levels. Imagine PSFT under $10 and SAP under $15. Problem is PSFT would be bargain and SAP would be another ROSS in the making. Most of you are too young to remember McCormack and Dodge, but they were an SAP once too. Technology kills app companies who don't conform. Anybody heard of Cullinet?
Back to JDEC so this thread doesn't lose interest...
Just because AS400 clients started later than MVS or big UNIX shops on getting ready for Y2K doesn't mean JDEC sales will continue at this pace throughout 1999. They won't, and worse yet, One World is so horrendous to install that all these guys that started this late will come to realize that they don't stand a CHANCE of getting it in before Y2K and they are sunk. JDEC will have SH*T for a reference list at the top end, i.e. big sites, by 2/1/2000. They'll have a very bad new millennium when the big shops who tried to use their stuff show up in disasterous straights on the front page of Computerworld. And they WILL be there. There is a VERY good reason JDEC has slumped. Read my earlier posts on this thread. I challenge ANY competent technical JDEC resource to refute ANY OF MY CLAIMS! One World belongs in another world. Earth ain't it.
Dell...
As for Dell, well lets just say this quarter will be huge, next quarter will probably be bigger and then the rest of 1999 will be memorable, not because it was better, but because the trend line was broken. Dell will SPUR the big crash that will occur in April of next year by preannouncing that their Q2 numbers in 1999 will not meet expectations. Even Greenspan won't be able to cut rates enough to deal with what will ensue. All the NASDAQ tape painting that has gone into keeping INTC, MSFT, DELL at incredible PEs will come unravelled at that point. Picture DELL with 60M shares for sale and 10M to buy. Now that is an overhang... Want to get rich in 1999, load up on Dell May 99 puts.
ttf
All beer bets welcome. Cross posts also welcome. I love the hate mail. Sometimes I feel like the only bear IN these woods. |
