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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Big Dog who wrote (31028)10/22/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Big Dog: I think what is moving these stocks is the same thing that is moving the overall market -- the conviction (rational or otherwise) that aggressive easing by the Fed will solve the global deflationary dilemma by the end of next year.

The chain of causation runs as follows -- If Asia recovers, oil prices will recover, and if oil prices recover, then so will day rates.

But with this rally based entirely on expectations of improvement a year hence, the reactions are apt to be quite severe. One cannot wait for obvious improvement in the fundamentals to buy these stocks. But by the same token it is way too early to chase strong rallies. Much better to wait for the inevitable sharp dips.
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