Which way is the WIND Blowing?
Here's a rhetorical question: would or should a contrarian investor be drawn to investigate all the information on a stock XYZ that is reported to be going "UP UP UP"?
To summarize some of the bearish or sell side points on WIND consider the following:
1) Microsoft is making inroads into the "realtime" embedded market with Windows NT. (see my posts #402, #406, #425)
2) Wind River's flagship product Tornado may have serious technical problems with its implementation on the most popular development host environment Windows NT/95. (see my posts #428, #413) Better yet find and talk to several Windows NT/95 Tornado users to get their opinion.
3) It's been reported that historically most embedded realtime companies make about 80% of their revenue from development software tool sales and around 20% from runtime royalties. I'm still fuzzy on what will change this historic trend to make Vxworks runtime royalties more profitable?
4) Microsoft's Windows CE 32-bit portable OS for embedded applications is slowing creeping into this market. (see my posts #396, #394)
5) Software success is dictated by setting or controlling standards. What software standards does WIND own or control?
6) Is WRS able to attract enough good engineers to do the needed work on Tornado? (see post #382) If you hire engineers overseas can you really manage them effectively from California? Any language problems? How long does it take a newly hired engineer to get up and running (ie be productive)?
7) Who exactly is the visionary or *alpha* geek at WIND that is setting their technical direction. How hard is he working? One of the founders of WIND, Jerry Fiedler has reported to be off counting his money and focusing on his music career (see post #338). Didn't Bill Gates play in a rock band?
8) The most popular (fastest growing) 32-bit embedded market is probably for the Intel x86 chips (386, 486, Pentium, Pentium Pro). There are over 40 companies selling realtime software solutions for this target. This chip is popular because their are several companies making it: Intel, AMD, Cyrix, National Semiconductor, Thompson plus other licensees. Leveraging and using PC hardware in embedded systems makes it very economicially attractive. How does one company such as WIND expect to dominate and achieve superior results in such a competitive environment? What is it's competitive advantage again?
If you said "Tornado", then what host operating system should I run my Tornado on?
The answer- you can run your Tornado development environment on Windows NT or Windows 95.
Is that a good development environment, can I use Windows for the target too?
Yes it is a good development platform, but don't even consider using Windows for your target environment.
But you said it was a good host or development environment right?
Yes, but the host and the target are completely different please don't get them confused.
Why can't I use the same environment for both the host and the target wouldn't that be easier?
Well no, because Microsoft doesn't understand the needs of the target/embedded side and they never will.
Never?...
That's enough for now. Happy New Year Allen. I mean that sincerely.
If you're ever in Cambridge, MA let me know.
Cheers,
Dave
ps 9) Did someone just whisper "insider selling"? See post #434
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Here's a Flashback - Former experts offering their view of the market.
Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co.:
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
(January 12, 1928)
E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange:
"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements
that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in
this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near
future."
(January 12, 1928)
Irving Fisher, The Most Prestigious Economist of His Day:
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently
high plateau. I do not feel that there will soon, if ever, be a
fifty or sixty point break below present levels, such as Mr.
Babson has predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good
deal higher than it is today within a few months."
(October 16, 1929)
"I believe the breaks of the last few days have driven
stocks down to hard rock. I believe that we will have a ragged
market for a few weeks and then the beginning of a mild bull
movement that will gain momentum next year."
(October 22, 1929)
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Did you ever wonder why-
When you say a stock is going up up up you are called an analyst.
When you say a stock might go down you are called a *&^%#! |
