Barkat,
Cool image on your profile. I'm gonna have to "borrow it":-)
>> Did you guys run the "conservative" Raymond J Norris off?<<
Who knows? He think's we're just amateurs and he's a "professional".
So I guess he's hanging out somewhere else, UNLESS, you're he's
alter ego?
>>Also, what are peoples thoughts around here on revenue growth?<<
IMO, good to great quarter coming up. I easily add 3 or 4 cents to that estimate.
>>I'm showing the current First call mean of 0.31 on December 7, FC is also saying there were 12 downward revisions made in the last 30 days for this Quarter.<<
Why don't you post that for us, if you don't mind? Glen
periodically gives us earnings estimate revisions from
the analysts. I'd say at least 60% of them have been revised
slightly upwards since earnings report less than 1 month ago.
Even if COMS makes only what the estimates say, it's still
undervalued. Most analyst say 25-30% growth per year. At
$1.35 '98 earnings, that makes COMS about 33-41. BUT, that
doesn't adjust for low interest rates. AND, that doesn't
adjust for the 60% ramp up into '99 earnings because COMS
earnings reflect that COMS is still "turning the corner".
AND, that doesn't include the low-balling estimates the
analysts have done to make COMS a great buy. Just as earnings
have been slightly revised upwards already, they will be
revised even moreso after COMS beats the next earnings
number, since it's low as it is.
COMS has been playing WS's game of "earnings management", which
is good, 'cause they're finally learnings. This use to
be one of COMS problems...dealing with WS.
The main thing is business is good and getting better. The
concensus on the new products is more positive by the day.
That's actually one of the biggest questions WS has...are
customers going to bite at the new line of products. If they
do, then nobody can really estimate future profit, except
to say that it's going to be damn good. That's what analysts
are looking for right now. ARE the new products being
accepted or is another company (ex. CSCO, ASND) eating their
lunch, etc....
>>COMS wont be showing for 1-1/2 months and the current sentiment on these boards is acting like they have already put the #'s up.<<
The bears have been withering away from the thread. We need more
of them to liven things up. But, I know they're out there
because a few days ago, when COMS dropped 2pts to close to
$30, the whiners came out.
Another reason there aren't too many bears, is because COMS has
been mauled so badly by them...4 times down to mid 20's...that
everybody has sold out. Only long-term investor's own, or
position traders from 25-32.
>>Any gap up, or large move and I'll be thinking of selling Nov. $35 calls to who ever is gutsy enough to buy them.<<
Anybody dumb enough to buy them deserves them (unless they
know something we don't). Short term market volatility makes
it too speculative. Sharp upward rallies can become steep
downward spirals in minutes. We saw that a few days ago.
COMS is doing well right now and you might hear a lot of bullish
talk on this thread, but believe me, after what we've gone
through the last 9 months or more, we don't take too much
for granted. I'm ready to go down to 24 again if I have to,
hopefully learning to make some $$ on the round-trip.
We just know that eventually a good company will get rewarded.
joe |
