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Non-Tech : Elaine Garzarelli
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To: Dh who wrote (185)1/3/1997 9:15:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed   of 292
 
David: You are barking up the wrong tree with oil, the reason is today oil and energy do not contribute more than 10% to total GNP. A full 30% increase in oil price over two years, even if it stuck would cause only 1.5% yearly inflation. Since many other parts of the economy are actually deflating it balances out. Since both oil and food pricing have strong seasonal waves, it must betaken out when attempting to see what is the real core inflation.

As for the market, we are within a days' trading of the high and the bond has backed up to 6.75%. Guess what will happen when this aberration is alleviated, I say before the party is over we will be within shouting distance of 7000. And I say the party will be over by spring, so get your seat belt fastened for the next ride up before the apocalypse.

Zeev
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