<...That Pru guys was something else trying hard to come with a 'flat' year scenario for 1999,he tried
hard but no cigar. Even the ball park figure of $500 mil in Rev thrown at them is no chump change
compared to what the revenue will for 98,even at the reduced 10% margin the end result before taxes
can not be flat.No idea where this guy went to school,probably Harvard,eh?>
First, I'm not short ITWO. But I suggest that you put rah-rah emotion to one side and do the math.
With $500M in revs and 10% operating margin, you're at $50M oper. revs. 38% tax rate leaves $31M net. Divide by 76+M shares and you're at 40 cents. Since 39 cents is what some analysts have for '98, the Pru guy wasn't exactly nuts.
Of course, what he missed was any provision for "other income." But even so, IF i2 goes with the model they tossed out last night, it'll bring most '99 forecasts down. In some cases, way down.
Also, listen for the part in the cc where i2 said they're basing their outlook on what PSFT and other companies have recently reported. There appears to be a general convergence towards ballpark of 30% rev growth and perhaps somewhat less EPS growth if margins get squeezed.
i2 said that SAP has so far shown mostly rhetoric. But i2 also said they would not draw inferences about the future from that; and they also said that this provides an excuse to managers who are looking for a rationale for delaying decisions. SAP is indeed getting some customers to pause to see what develops.
All in all, it was a very good Q3, but it was not an altogether super-duper outlook.
I'm not interested in getting into an argument. I just wanted to offer a few cautious thoughts. |
