Well said from TMF.
<Hi! I was in Asia for two weeks and therefore didn't get a chance to chip in my tupenny's worth.
Anyway, my puts expired when AMZN was at 95 and I put the trade back on at 115. Complete luck. (Lost a little nevertheless, bought in the eighties.) But there is a larger lesson here. Having been originally schooled in value, I have learned from trading AMZN that on a day to day basis it is an indicator: very important, but only an indicator nonetheless. Day to day politics and economics can be so far removed from value that if you become driven by it you will be bankrupt before the market agrees with you (provided, of course, you are right). In the meantime, one has to trade the market (provided you are trading, and being short as a 'long-term' investor is, well, a little puzzling) however insane it might seem, and get in and out on opportunities. What value helps you decide is which side of the volatility you take, so that when the market finally corrects, upwards or downwards, you are not on the wrong side of the trade. You may have no positions that day, so that you do not participate in that 50 point drop, but that is better than facing margin calls for months before that event. On the other hand, if you are consistently right on value, then over time you will randomly participate in the eventual 80% 'negative surprise' and that will compensate for errors of commission and omission.
Manish Aurora. |
