> I think the stock price will really take off second
> or third quarter next year.
Not to belabor the obvious, but I think the stock price will closely follow profitability. I don't have a ton of faith in CTHR yet, but I'm considering a buy. My enthusiasm (you may prefer to call it greed) usually gets the better of my wisdom, so when evaluating a buy I think of all the reasons I should short. If I can come up with a good list, I know to move on to something else. Here's my "why to short CTHR list". Please note that I'm a long term investor, so I try to ignore short term factors (end-of-year selloff, etc.)
1) Yield, yield, yield. Cree might make slow progress on yield improvements which are essential to CTHR's bottom line. Have we not already seen this kind of problem?
2) CTHR signs distribution agreements that get ahead of yield improvements resulting in unhappy retailers not getting product. They have been careful about this so far.
3) Moissanite might not sell. Initial reports are good, but they are limited and I have only heard them from biased parties -- posters to this board and Yahoo, and from CTHR itself. CTHR at least has the SEC to discourage it from being misleading. I don't mean to impugn the reputation of any particular posters, but everybody wants to feel like they're invested in a winner. If moissanite looked like a Cracker Jacks prize, someone would still post that "it looks great. I bought one for my girlfriend/boyfriend/dog."
4) The mgmt team is unproven. Again, I have heard posters say what a great guy Hunter is, but that doesn't mean squat to me. SHow me the money! You show me yours, then I'll show you mine! Even a great product can be driven into the ground by lousy mgmt.
I agree that this stock could take off in a big way, but I remain somewhat skeptical as to whether or not this stock meets my risk tolerance. Writing this helped me to collect my thoughts; hope it helps some of you too!
Good luck to all,
Mr Bones |
