>>> We've been in BTDer mentality for too long<<<
I understand your point and have felt that way myself on occasion.
This can't last forever, yuppies can't think that that they can automatically treat the stock market as an instant money making machine, they don't know what a real bear market is (like '73-'74) valuations are too high, the world is falling apart, etc.
And the game will change one day.
But right now, technically, there is no evidence that the market has
broken down. Some may feel that is should, but the actual evidence of that is not here yet.
Take a look at the weekly ratio summation posts that I posted last weekend. You can see that in 1973 we broke below - 4.25 or
whatever and that indicated more trouble. So far, until proven
otherwise, we are in a normal 4 year correction/bear.
We also have the eight year cycle in small cap outperformance due
right about now.
We have demographics that support a further 4 year blast (working
baby boomers with money to throw at the market and consumer items).
Then there is the prospect of all these emerging countries, sooner or later, getting their act together. Even if it happens much later,
it will happen, and that is priced into the market. That is why valuations don't make sense, when you look at current earnings,
because it will happen. They have just as much a right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness as we do.
Things always look bad when prices have sold off 20%.
The news will change.
I would not want to bet against that 4 year cycle.
BWDIK
Vitas |
