Hi Donald,
The NYSE % over 200 day MA is only available from 1986 in
the TC 2000 database. Trendline charts had the % over under 30 week ma years ago. Some libraries may have old copies.
It can be reasonably approximated using the McClellan summation in
prior years.
The 4 year cycle is just a general cycle. It is not a relatively precise cycle like the 9 month - 189 day cycle. It has been called the 3 1/2
year to 4 1/2 cycle. Sometimes it is a 3 year or a 5 year cycle.
It is just a general pattern of the market to look for. Generally, you
look to the summation to see when the correction is starting when
it goes below the zero level. You then use the summation to try to identify a deep oversold condition that is turning up. Once the summation goes over zero you are probably in the new bull phase. Once it goes over 2000 the all clear, go the beach signal is given.
"4 year" cycle bottoms have been:
'32, '38, '42, '46, '49' '53, '57, '60, '62, '66, '70, '74, '78, '82, '87,
'90, '94.
It may have something to do with the Fed pumping and contracting
at some point to keep things from getting too far out of control in any one given cycle.
You can study these bottoms and the summation at the decisionpoint.com site on the long term charts on the right side of
the page:
decisionpoint.com
>>>does it mean that after every cycle bottom, it needs to go up<<<
the market does not have to do anything - we are just trying to identify probabilities, and keep close tabs for clues that something may
or may not be progressing as it should - si?
>>> the market will continue its upward trend until the whole world
hits the limit, whenever that is.<<<
there are a lot of people in those emerging countries that are
potential consumers of whatever. Someday Yahoo's multiple will discount doing business with other planets and beyond. Those
satelite dishes are cool, man! <just kidding>
Vitas |
