Stak,
I feel that there is going to be a growing popularity of Network Computing and a move away from the traditional popularity of the WinTel fat client computing. The cost of this WinTel client is much higher in both capital cost and the long term TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) than the newer Network Computers. If anyone has worked with a Network Computer (I have and they are so simple to use and maintain and substantially less costly to purchase), they would realize it very quickly.
Both MSFT and Intel realize this huge competitive disadvantage over Network Computers and is putting a lot of effort in trying to reduce these disadvantages (this is a huge threat for both MSFT and Intel). Examples of their efforts include: aggressively pushing the DTMF (desktop Management Task Force) to reduce the management cost and complexity of WinTel systems, Intel pushing itself and its OEMs hard to reduce the cost of intel desktop systems below $1000, MSFT and Intel setting and pushing the minimum hardware requirements for '99 to include the latest Intel technologies for MSFT OSes, MSFT developing ZAK (zero administration kit) integration into their OS, MSFT's stealing of the Cytrix Winframe technology and implementation into NT5, etc.
MSFT and Intel are deeply scared of Network Computers and although they dont publicly admit it (to reduce the attention that it might draw to the subject if they do), their actions show that this is a huge threat for them.
The Network Computer (NC) solutions are not that popular in the real world yet because its true power will come when the Java technology has a critical mass of solutions, maturity, and industry accpetance arrives. This is getting real close. IBM is the biggest pusher of the Java drive in the industry. Their San Fransicso project is getting new partners involved every month.
Once Pure Java business solutions begin showing up in more and more critical business solutions, the Network Computer will begin to flurish! MSFT knows this and we all know how aggressively they are trying to mutate Java so that this cannot happen.
But something MSFT cannot stop easily is that IBM has an Iron grip on the largest fortune 100 organizations around the world. Account control on these companies are amazing. Most of these companies consider IBM to be an IT partner and consider MSFT to simply be a vendor of software. The vast majority of these companies look to IBM for future directions, not MSFT. Think about it, if you wanted to know what the best overall IT direction of your company, who would go and ask - IBM or MSFT? I know my answer.
So, when IBM feels their San Fransisco Java Project is ready for market, they will push it through their HUGE world-wide marketing ranks to make the Java / Network Computing solution a reality. Then Gerstner's prediction will begin to become reality!
Menawhile MSFT will be struggling to try to get NT5 out and accepted before IBM begins its slow, methodical, but inevitable success in reaching its goals.
That is why companies like Novell have agreed to get involved in the IBM San Fransicso project and are working with Oracle and Sun and all the open Java platform standards.
As for my knowledge of real-time OSes - sorry I do not know enough about them to comment.
Cheers!
Toy
(When my boss talks, people listen) |
