Steven,
thanks for reply and note from CC.
Before further comments let me clarify my current NXTR position. Early I was very bullish on company because I believed that company has good lipo-technology and will be applicable on RNA-fragment molecules (aptamers). I still believe that their lipo-products (AmBisome and MiKasome) are good but they do lost grip on general advance lipo-formulation, luck of further investment in basic research. They have good manufacturing and process technology (high margin), but lipo-technologies applicable on aptamers are very troubled, imo. Add to that that top management's was performing worse than pure, terrible (my open later to Path and Larry).
Consequently, I reduce my NXTR holding. I agree that their stock are cheep, but so it is for another +100 bts. The point is which one to chose in the time when bt sector rebound from depressed period. To maximize return and recover losses. Yes, for this year I have lost money.
>> The next question, and more important one I would say, is how much market share Am can take from conventional Ampho- B.<<
Fujisawa is conducing PIV phase , efficiency-economic aspect of the AmS compared to conven. A.B. If they can sow benefit of the lipo formulation, and I think that there is, further market penetration and capture of large portions of the LIPO market share should not be a problem. Do you have filing that Fujisawa is potential NXTR-general buyer?
>> I guess we will have to wait for the 10Q to come out to find out the detail.<<
Right.
>>MK and other pipeline issues:
NXTR has some preliminary results from the Phase II trial for MK. NXTR tried to send the result out to a November meeting as 'late breaker (name?)', but was rejected for being too late. The full result will come out in 99Q1, and Phase III is expected in mid-99.<<
NXTR was always to slow. This is what troubled me.
>>During the CC, one person asked the possibility of accelerating the trial, given the reduced burn rate from the spin-off. NXTR will not do that, according to Michael Hart.<<
This again indicate that they are preserving cash for *spit -off* and that NXTR is on market for sale. Let buyer burn cash on MK trials.
>>The current treatment for NX1838 is via injection. NXTR is trying a non-invasivie form of delivering the drug. If it can be done, it will be a huge positive for AMD, since the alternative will be either laser treatment or injection in the eyeballs. However, given NXTR's credit, I have to doubt if it can do it, at this moment.<<
Agree. Let first see some safety and pharmacology data.
>>NX-211 is in late clinic trial, and Phase I trial is going to be initiated in 99H1. [Do you know how good this drug is in non-liposome form?]<<
GLX lurtotecan completed multiple small PII trials and show comparable efficiency (maybe for some indications better) to other topoisomerases. Toxicity are problem. Indications are that lipo-formulation do solve tox issue and do not reduce efficiency (from animals study). Hard to say what will happen in human trials.
>> [Maybe, the majority of the shorts are the hedging for the convertables after all.]<<
Sometime I tried to believe this, but will not bet on it.
All in all, I will be happy to get rid of my NXTR holding at ~$18/share, and recapture my Aug. loses.
Take care.
Miljenko |
