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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD

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To: Lucretius who wrote (4625)	10/24/1998 5:40:00 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) of 14427

I did some reading last night and today on the possible projections of where this market is going. Basically the feeling I am getting is that next week will be a downer for most everything including gold. Possible 8100- 8200. Then the general markets will rebound after the Nov. elections since some uncertainty is removed and people buy on what they consider the last dip before the Christmas rally. Gold may rally a bit, but retest next weeks lows around mid November or so for a double bottom and then rally. This rally appears to be a long term one and it would be best to stay long and not trade it. One could try to time next week and bail only to return mid November...but the time frame seems sketchy. I'm tempted to close out half of my positions here and try to pick the bottom mid November. Still thinking about this. The general market rally after the elections could very well propel us into new highs around the New Year...after that, I don't see a clear picture other than the reality of a slowing economy and LOWER earnings. That reality will hit everyone when earnings are released Jan/Feb like a grenade I believe. That may be major market dump. Growl time. Regarding oil, it seems that it follows the price of gold with a time lag of 6-8 months according to one newsletter I read. It appears then as if we will rally here until January, then oil will drop below recent lows in the April/May timeframe. Utilities may have bottomed here or at least by mid November. Then another rally through January, with another downswing through Feb. My take on the best participants of the end of year rally which should begin after the November elections are the small caps. I'm looking at ANLT myself and several others. It is said that at the end of a bull, the small caps do a final blow out...this may be it. Then January and bear land for...? So to recap, November 3rd seems to be a good point to return to the long side after next week's downdraft to the 8100-8200 level. Gold should rally big time after the second week in November from a lower level than we are now. If the 8100-8000 level doesn't hold all bets are off. Don't shot the messenger. LT, we already know your take on what will happen long term. What are your feelings on the above timeframe? <H>

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