No George, I hadn't seen the small caps' performance. Interesting. But, I still wouldn't be tempted.
Re : "BTW, I now feel the market has bottomed, but expect wide swings over the next few months". I'm not sure what you mean by that? How wide is a swing?!
Nevertheless, I take your point about the renewing confidence --- and, in fact, it may be so. Every day one learns something new. Expect the unexpected.
All the same, the long term trend pictures of all indices (except utilities, XAU) look terrible and, accordingly, I believe it is still too premature to talk about the bear being over (reminding you of your very own sentiment of two weeks ago!). In an upside-down world where everyone is confused and the compasses now point south instead of north, or north instead of south!!, I still believe that major violations of long-term trend have importance and have to be taken seriously.
Apropos market risk, I am very impressed with this chart of Barnes Market Risk. decisionpoint.com
As I read it, it shows that the downside (such as it was?!) still has a fair way to go.
The gold price retracement/drift could take a month or two, IMO, but I do not see POG below $280. |
