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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?
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To: treetopflier who wrote (2246)10/24/1998 8:11:00 PM
From: Amsterdam  Read Replies (2) of 6974
 
Sebl has me torn at this price.
On the one hand they have won some very big deals and there are still a lot of big deals out there to harvest. They'll win their fair and Y2K won't really affect those deals. Q4 could be great and the stock could rise substantially.

On the other hand I don't fully trust their management and expectations are still fairly high. While they've won some big deals in the past I've heard of stiffening competition for them on the high-end with some notable losses. Their product, price, and implementation model has limited their ability to penetrate the crowded middle market. In addition, I hear they've hung a lot of Scopus customers out to dry.

I think there is a blow-up in their future but I think those that expect it to happen soon are mistakenly lumping Sebl together with other erp vendors. The reasons the erp vendors have/will fall are different from the reasons that Sebl will fall. Too dangerous to short at this price.
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