Tom,
Side note: Since joining SI two years ago, I've found that my participation has turned from investment research to a quest for knowledge. The internet, SI, and threads like this have opened a new world. It's like having a research staff feeding articles, then debating the merits.
Thanks for the response to my questions:
On Russia - "I'm certain the Washington think tanks are burning the midnight oil, developing contingencies."
THis is my concern, that we are reacting. We should be getting together the European Union and Russia in an effort to resolve their problems and I've seen no indications that this is being done. I had hoped you would have a different view.
"I'm not an advocate of a strong USD policy. As a currency feature, yes. As a policy feature, no. It's a dangerous fixation."
Same sentiment. I believe the Fed (Rubin) and the FRB (AG) dropped the ball when the $US started it's upward movement. THey could have prevented much of the capital movement out of the emerging markets that exacerbated the situation.
Japan- "A remedy for what began the crisis is the solution for what will ultimately end it."
Here I have drawn an opposing view. Japan has effectively done little to solve their problems. China and the ASEAN countries have bitten the bullet (perhaps not willingly) and are on their way to a recovery. I feel the best course of action would be to ignore Japan and direct emphasis to the developing economies. This would in the long term reduce the dependence on Japan that started the 'crisis'.
Germany - I had not considered Germany's role in all of this and intend to follow their actions closer. Short term, I doubt that they will have an effect, but they are astute 'generational investors' and I'm sure they will be taking advantage of weakness where they can.
Thanks again,
Ron
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