Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (2265)	10/25/1998 1:33:00 AM
From: treetopflier	Read Replies (1) of 6974

<Don't you think investors have already factored that into their pricing of these stocks? That's part of the reason so many of them have tanked.> Not yet. I think most of the tanking to-date has been a general readjustment in what investors are willing to pay for techs. 80x and above is a little rich. Up here, all the bad news rocks the boat, and there is plenty of that to go round. There is more than a hint of recession in the air beside an impending date with a new millennium. I think recently with more tangible announcements of Y2K's potential impact from PSFT, SAP, IBM that the topic is getting more attention, but no I don't think SEBL trading at $18 from $32 is due to an keen understanding on the part of its investors of the impact on sales cycles of enterprise software and hardware products between mid-1998 and the end of 1999. Most investors have never purchased one of these products. Y2K is just a date to them. How could it possible impact SEBL sales? As for SEBL management. I heard the same 'Y2K doesnt impact us' from JDEC's management in their conference call too. 45 days ago we heard it from PSFT management. HELLOOOOOOO! Too bad for PSFT management that they got religion and called a prayer meeting. No, Tom Seibel wouldn't have a company that far into a purchase decision stop it because of Y2K. And Bill didn't have sex. But he doesn't see all the OTHER potential buyers who have scratched it off next year's agenda altogether without him ever knowing it. They'll call him late next year, or send him a big RFP in August, or start the process in 2/2000 when the dust has settled. He doesn't see these decisions being made. They aren't decisions against SEBL. They are decisions against putting more BIG projects on 1999's plate. Yeah, front office is hot. Well so is managerial survival at the CIO level and these guys need a stable shop next year one hell of a lot more than they need anything SEBL is selling. Period. Now of course, there will be SEBL sales in 1999 and probably plenty of them. But enough to fuel a whopping 60 or 80 pe? Not til 2000 is my guess. Meantime, Earth economics in general seem a bit troubled to me and SEBL can't escape that. If they do tho, I'll be wine shopping! ttf

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