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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper
UTEK 30.230.0%Jun 5 5:00 PM EST
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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2798)10/25/1998 8:42:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 3696
 
MrGreenJeans: You are right. Talk is cheap and with Art Z. the talk is getting cheaper by the second with him. His credibility has been put into play now. His guidance from the July cc could not have been more off the mark. He called for a bottom on CNBC. He said in that cc: "It is my belief that we have reached the bottom and future sales are expected to increase towards the end of the year and accelerate through 1999." He further said that June quarter was the bottom and sales would increase in FQ3 and FQ4. Well, sales did not increase but decreased instead. And if I were an institution and got that kind of guidance and got stiffed with a no preannounce policy, I would not be stepping up to the plate and buying more shares here. I doubt whether any analyst got good guidance during the quarter as well. Consensus was for a loss of .06.

Now when he said during the cc last week that he sees marked improvement in sales over past performance in FQ4, I am thinking that means they are going to do better than another .34 loss before one time charges. Big deal. I must say I did not listen to the Q & A part of the cc as that is blocked off from the public ears except if you get a slot on the live cc. 9Anyone got a summary of this portion of the cc?) They should drop this policy immediately if they are concerned about their shareholders who are mostly individuals. It gives the impression in this environment there is something to hide. Yes, UTEK does not want its competitors to learn of its market doings and this is the rationale for this policy. But do like other companies and just don't say anything that threatens company's competitiveness. And in fact they do this with analysts routinely on the cc. So what is the big deal? What is it that the company can say readily to analysts which cannot be said to average shareholders who works during the live cc?

So let's see. I have a company giving terrible guidance which it is unwilling to adjust in the marketplace by talking with analysts throughout the quarter as indicated by how wrong the analysts have been lately. There is no preannounce policy so you never know when you will get broadsided with a poor earnings report. Institutions do not like that kind of crap and will be less likely to sponsor that kind of stock. Shorts that are all over this thing for speculated reasons. And the company makes it difficult for me as an individual to follow because there is no replay of the Q & A. From my perspective, this is not a good recipe for success as an investor.
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