Hi Angler:
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Your posts always helped me
to better focus on the markets.
We all need to review market wisdom every few months. "avoid
gambling" and "market always anticipate 6 months in advance"
are true market gems.
You were right on the impact of lower interest rates.
Some of the better funds in low interest rates environment are:
1. FSUTX.
As you pointed out the top 5 holdings in FSUTX are telecom
stocks. Telecom and utility companies love low interest rates.
Telecom companies are also very good in developing new
products and new services.
2. Financial funds such as FSLBS, FIDSX, FSVLX.
Lower interest rate means lower cost to financial institutions.
If they decrease high risk derivative activities (avoid gambling)
they should make very good money.
3. Tech funds, FSELX, FSPTX.
The tech sectors will be helped by Japan's improvement, new
products, and low interest rate.
4. Cyclical industries, FSCGX, FSHOX, FSRFX.
Low interest rate and no recession.
5. FSAIX (cyclical and a special situation).
Low interest rate and low fuel costs are great news for airlines.
Also earlier in the month the airlines were down graded by an
analyst, because he assumed there would be recession next year.
His timing was very poor. A few days later Greenspan cut the
rates again!
6. Consumer funds, FSCPX, FSRPX
Lower interest rate and no recession.
Also you pointed out in an earlier post, FSPHX is a great fund
for all times. Every one should allocate some money to FSPHX.
Only switch this portion of money between FSPHX and #085.
There are about 3,600 stocks traded on NYSE. On Aug 31, there were
1,183 New Lows! That was the bottom of the recent correction.
I like to see the number of New Lows less than 80. On Friday Oct
23, the number of New Lows was 33.
We are still in a bull market. And thanks to Greenspan, there
will be no recession next year.
Best wishes,
Julius
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