Bob,
You say: <<I truely believe we could see a 3-1 with a price back up to 75 by late summer early winter of 99>>
Maybe. But that would put AOL back at a P/E between 150 an 200, an extremely high implied growth rate going forward. I recognize that AOL has sported a high multiple in the past but there is a difference between going from one million to two million subscribers in one year and going from 13 million to, say, 25 million. It not only costs a bundle to grow like that, you have to be able to give customers exactly what they want--including, in AOL's case, broadband access, something AOL still has to address meaningfully. High speed access, whether cable or DSL, will cost AOL either directly to implement broadband or indirectly in lost market share. @home may only have 200,000 customers currently but in 2-3 years broadband of one kind or another is projected to have 25% of the access market. If I'm Monsieurs Case and Pittman, this could keep me awake long into the night.
In short, though it may be do-able for AOL, it's nothing like clear sailing.
Best,
--Steve
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