I don't believe the NC and PC are competitors.
The NC, it seems to me, is really targeted as a replacement for the tens of millions of "dumb terminals" that are still out there. The "cost of ownership" issue is a bit of a red herring. IBM tried for years to keep corporate customers tied to its mainframes with that line. It didn't work for them, and it won't work for Sun and the other NC proponents. The battle today is not for the desktop (PCs have already won there) but for "mobile intelligence". This is an area today dominated by notebook computers (I don't see anyone touting notebook NCs) and the the emerging market in smart cellphones, PCS systems, next-generation PDAs, etc. It's the reason MSFT has such a major effort focused on Windows CE and IBM is all aglow over "electronic handshakes" and such. NCs are a throwback to the mainframe-era notion of centralized computing. While there may be a role for them in replacing fixed-function terminals, it's really hard to compete with a $300 dumb head that does its job well enough.
As for NCs replacing PCs, ask yourself what end-users are clamoring for them? All I see is a lot of power users who wouldn't be caught dead sitting behind one preaching NCs as the solution for "the masses". Well, the whole point of the PC revolution is that "the masses" don't need big brother to do their thinking for them. Beyond this, PCs are making dramatic headway in self-diagnosis and self-service. PC networks will become much easier and less costly to manage and administer over the next two years. With INTC, MSFT, and every PC manufacturer working on the problem it will be solved.
So if Sun's future is tied to the JavaStation, then this is a pretty bold gamble. But I suspect that most Sun proponents would not claim that Sun has bet the business on this box. |
