AH! You shouldn't pull my thoughts from the past, then people realize I am just a Roman peasant (G)
I was a little early on some of that stuff(wrong about others). L-T Interest rates for example have just now begun their trip to the upside (I underestimated the stupidity of many investors that have been throwing themselves at L-T treasuries). Likewise, Drillers earnings WILL contract further as oil prices remain flat for some time. etc.
As for now, i continue to say watch the bond mkt and the dollar. As the dollar falls so will our stock mkt. Gold conversely will rise. The long bond will likely see misguided cash rush into it during mkt declines but at some point the foreign tidal wave out of dollars will overwhelm even it and the dollar, bond, and stock mkt will all fall together. This decline could begin as soon as this week. I am seeing signs of this already, OR we could have one last push slightly higher.. hard to tell. IMO, the small caps will lag on the way down this time... thereby fooling many that have religiously watched the RUT for mkt direction. The big caps are the ones that need to come down, the small caps will go lower as we begin the crash in earnest, but at first I believe that the decline will be deceivingly narrow in the big caps, until we start hitting new lows... then panic will set in as things get pretty silly.
-Lucretius |
