Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 259.69

-3.9%

2:43 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (25721)	10/25/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) of 70976

GM, I believe the disparity in views over what is a fair value for AMAT lies in changing industry conditions, or a perception thereof. Curently I am holding 3 articles from the past week entitled: -DRAM Shortage Predicted in 2000 -DRAM Market to see Recovery in 1999 -Chip Gear BTB Falls to 0.57 Current EPS estimates are being thrown out of the window by many who are accumulating at these levels. Why would someone pay $34 for a stock with a EPS of $0.50 for next year???? The anecdotal evidence points to an over-tightening of the belt which may be followed by a floodgate of capex, or so the theory goes. Historically, the deeper the BTB has fallen, the following move up was even more violent and prolonged. If these predictions are correct about a DRAM imbalance in 2000 and AMAT is able to earn say $3.00, is the stock overvalued here? I believe you already know what I think<GGG> BK

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