George Gilder - Forbes ASAP Message Board

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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: IVAN1 who wrote (745)	10/25/1998 4:00:00 PM
From: George Gilder	Read Replies (4) of 5853

My latest newsletter is partly on the subject (Telecosm2K). I regard it as chiefly a government issue; private sector companies have ample incentive to master it, one way or another, since they will go bankrupt or lose their jobs if they don't); but politicians tend to flee such crises, the better to blame them on business (the illegitimate holders of power better wielded by people who have faced the voters, or at least mooned them on TV with ads). Most 2K catastrophists seem to think that a software breakdown is irremediable and that embedded chips commonly shut down systems when the dates go awry. Actually, computer systems go down all the time and 99.9 percent of embedded processors can fail without major incident. Thus no giant disaster, but there will be many little embarrassments and slowdowns. I gather the power grid will work manually. That is the key issue, because government is so deeply engaged, with 50 state public utilities commissions. Otherwise the approach of 2K is an opportunity to replace alot of obsolete systems. Look for a good year in 99 and a slowdown in 2K.

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