Jacob,
Great article. I don't know how things look in Alaska, but down here in SV, it sure feels like next year is going to be recessionary. My feelings are all based on anecdotal evidence... friends in the construction business say business has been fantastic for the last two years, but it has fallen off a cliff lately. High-end homes down here have seen prices slip; although mid-sized homes...in the 500's <g>... are stable. Most IT budgets are fairly frozen or reduced for 99, unless it's Y2K related. It feels like 1990 again (esp. in terms of Real Estate).
In terms of Semis (and AMAT down the food chain), I don't see how a recovery could happen in the first half of 99. I sense that the Dells and Gateways and Compaqs are in for a rough year next year because there will be no large-scale, IT-driven push to buy boxes for a while (mostly because of the fear of recession is keeping budgets down, and Y2K spending is taking the rest). NT Server growth should continue, but at a drastically reduced pace.
We're seeing a nice trading bounce here, but that's all it is, I believe. I expect (and my $$$ are backing this expectation) that we will revisit the lows sometime before Christmas and after AMAT's next report. If I'm wrong, then I'll have a nice offset to the gains from the run from $37 to $22... BWDIK...
F.
PS: I'm happy for Brian (and Justa and Mason) and the other Bulls as this is merely a foretaste of what will eventually come, and I look forward to the day we are all on the same page... |
