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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.32-3.3%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Henry D who wrote (7191)10/25/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire   of 10921
 
Based on my observations at Semicon SW, the "good news" seems to be that all the bad news is out. Things aren't getting better for the equipment companies, and there are few indications that they'll get better soon, but they don't seem to be getting any worse, either. The customers (chip makers) have mostly stopped bleeding money, and some of them are even showing better-than-expected profits. Japan seems to be slowly starting to fix things, and Samsung is making very competitive noises about keeping up with Micron. That means that all the orders that haven't been cancelled yet probably are real orders, and all the people who still have jobs will probably get to keep them.

And so the value players, who are a pretty patient bunch anyway, and the greedy folks who know that these stocks are going to go up 3x or 4x at some point and want to get every last penny of that gain, are jumping in with both feet. Some of them will probably get shaken out after the next quarter or two of poor earnings (and I think the next quarter or two will be poor), but we may have seen the absolute bottom already. Unless of course we have more macroeconomic uncertainty. If the Global Depression threats become real again (psychologically), the stocks will probably go down as fast as they've gone up.

Standard disclaimer: I don't buy these companies, I just write about them, so being wrong won't cost me anything.

Katherine
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