Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: E_K_S who wrote (6676)	1/4/1997 7:46:00 PM
From: Janice Shell	of 42771

Eric-- In re the additional sites you suggest: earlier this evening I spent about an hour doing the "guided tour" at Conductor (http://www.HHConductor.com I think). They do quant stuff; at least that's what I think it is. (And if you subscribe to the "advanced program" you get chaos theory too.) At the beginning they ask you to pick an index and request a time frame for their predictions, which are based on data going back to 1990. So I chose the OEX with a 10-day time frame. And then WOW up pops this thing that says the trend is extremely bearish, with the confidence rating at -95. I went on (and on and on), only to find increasing confirmation of this horrific view. And then finally I got to the end, at which point they suggest you look at their "reports". Fine. What do I learn? That this "indicator" (bearish outlook, confidence -95) has an approximately 37% historic probability (since 1990) of being correct (and I'd say less than that, since it scored 100% in '92). They go on to say one shouldn't really pay much attention to it, as chances are things'll go the other way. Okaaayyyy.... Well, it was fun, sort of, but I ain't paying $39.95 a month for it. Janice

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