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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT)

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To: savolainen who wrote (1559)	10/26/1998 5:21:00 PM
From: Daniel Ralls	Read Replies (1) of 1998

Analyst estimates for 4th qtr. eps revs Firm 4Q98 1Q99 4th 1Q99 price target Lehman -.35 -.09 15.5 n/a $25 Montgom Sec. -.38 n/a 16.0 n/a n/a Josepthal -.36 n/a n/a n/a $22 Oppenheimer -.36 n/a n/a n/a n/a BT Alex Brown -.39 n/a n/a n/a n/a I guess these analysts are having the same problems figuring out future revs as we are! What usually happens is these analysts update twice during the qtr and this is when they put out revenue estimates. The Josepthal analyst had an interesting point. He figures that with every additional $5MM in new orders (during 99) will translate into $0.04 per share. From this I get a Net Profit Margin of 13.33% (5/16.8 million shares = .30 .... .04/.30 = 13.3) Figuring out Gross Margins is alot harder, since I don't know what the SG&A,R&D, Interest figures will be. I'd be afraid to even guess on those. RE: SBC...SBC made a 4% investment in Concentric Networks (CNCX) recently. I don't know if this could affect any ORCTF/SBC deal, though. Also, I read were Cisco sold 1000 DSLAM's to US West. Doesn't seem like alot but maybe US West will start looking at second/third suppliers as well.

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