Well Jesus, first on using a small sample size to extrapolate. If you want to wait until all the numbers are in to support a position you suspect, be my guest. You will likely lose a lot of money imo. Example take this last summer when the software sector went south. If you were intuitive you got out of the software stocks at that time. If you waited for the actual data to confirm your concerns, well, then you would have exited software stocks, maybe last week. This is not to say that I have been right every time I have tried to identify a trend. But make no mistake about it, I am trying to identify a trend. If you are not, and instead waiting for facts, fine. We will not come to the same conclusion at the same time.
In my opinion, the trend is against Oracle apps. Oracle apps have no strengh as a sales pitch against Psft or Sap. Its fine that the salesforce is being reorged to sell the products more effectively. That does not, however address the lack of functionality in the core technology. But, its a start I agree with you there.
My sense is that Oracle hasnt won any new large accounts EXCEPT those where 1) they are in the bay area and view Oracle as a larger presence than Sap or 2) they are a Sap reject shop. Thats it as far as I can see for new accts for Oracle.
As far as the installed base losing sites to the competition, I said Id try to dig up the names. As I said Synopsys and another site (cant remember the name offhand sorry) I am familiar with - but if you recall the wording of my original post, what I meant was that Oracles share of the total installed base of ERP software is getting smaller. There have been plenty of studies, gartner group and the like that support that position.
Not trying to be negative, I just dont like it when Oracle bulls deny the reality that Oracle has become a distant third in the ERP wars. |
