Thread, I thought you might find this interesting. Don't shoot the messenger as I have no position in this stock one way or the other. That may change but I doubt it.
The Taipan newsletter has just recommended a short position in HEB with a target of $2-1/2.
The article starts out:
Sleep all day, whine all night: Call me insensitive, but I think the professed sufferers of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome lead such charming lives. Don't get me wrong. There are conditions that can drain a body of life and energy. And usually, the symptoms are indicators of serious physiological or pathological conditions.
But as you may already have sensed, I don't buy Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. That's because I have a relative with this "disease." She just lies around, complaining about how hard it is to operate the TV with a remote control.
It then goes on to call this the plague du jour, comparing it with Attention Deficit Disorder and Ritalin (which I took as a child). The implication is that CFS is an easy-way-out catch all diagnoses.
The writers mentions the Berlin Stock Exchange:
(If you want to see other examples of what a Berlin Stock Exchange listing can do for a small stock, look at the share price performance of Eastbrokers. I, for one, am keeping an eye out for other shorting opportunities created by Berlin Stock Exchange listings.)
On Stratton Oakmont:
I knew some Stratton Oakmont brokers
These guys were incredible. A juggernaut of white-shirted mercenaries, holding phones upside down, screaming at their clients to "buy, buy, buy..." (I heard a Stratton broker describe his job as "shoveling shit.")
The writer also mentions the company promoting shareholders to take possession of their shares to engineer a short squeeze in response to Asensio and says that this would work wonders, at least for those shareholders wanting a higher price so they can dump their shares. He then says that insiders have been sellers all the way, dwarfing the 20,000 shares purchased at $3 by Dr. Carter. He then says:
In the conference call, Dr. Carter stated that he has never sold one share. True, but he failed to state that can't sell his shares because they are locked up.
As per the September 16,1996 prospectus, Dr. Carter's shares are locked up until November 2, 1998. Is it just an intriguing coincidence that the company's promotional campaign involving the Berlin Stock Exchange listing and a Boston CFS conference coincide with the termination of Dr. Carter's 36-month lock-up...?
He mentions the controversy surrounding the stock:
Bre-X of biotechs?
In my non-scientific opinion, the odds of Ampligen achieving full regulatory approval are somewhat anemic. Dr. Carter is a controversial figure. Some papers reported allegations that he allegedly swindled a million dollars out of an AIDS patient. Ampligen is also controversial. It failed in clinical trials for HIV with DuPont. Perhaps it was DuPont's fault. I don't know.
But when you consider all the controversies, it doesn't add up: a controversial drug, a controversial biotech player, a controversial underwriter, a controversial disease... This is too much controversy to support a market cap of US$330 million (on an US$8 share price)!
He compares the company's market cap to Augoron Pharmacuticals with multiple drugs, FDA approvals, profits and $500M in revenue and reacts with ridicule that HEB should be at 30% of AGPH's market cap.
Finally he says to use a $13 mental stop to avoid MM gunning your stop. |
