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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 236.50+2.7%12:59 PM EST
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To: Carl R. who wrote (40395)10/26/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (1) of 53903
 
carl, my analysis is empirical. i've always said that mu is extremely competitive. the bulls say that mu is way ahead. i've seen no evidence to support that. mu management just isn't credible. much less so than samsung. in fact, samsung may have seen how naive mu investors are and may have learned to play the game by saying they are making money.

fact: the doc saw samsung's financials and ruled they were not dumping.

fact: mu was selling chips below production cost.

fact: samsung and mu's prices are very competitive if not equal to each other.

logical inference - samsung's production cost must have been less.

fact: now, if samsung suspends 25% of their production then their cost per chip goes up significantly. it appears they've done this. if samsung's costs have gone up a lot then mu would appear to be producing chips at a lower cost.

logical inference: if samsung ramps up again then their cost will be lower. if not lower then very competitive.

i've never commented on mu's yields. 50% seems ridiculously low. even so, i have no firsthand knowledge and can't speak to it. so i don't.

the bulls here appear to know very little about logic. that is why they think i'm being so unreasonable or call me a forever bear. i have been a bear b/c it has been the right way to be. if there is a reason to turn bullish then i will. right now i'm much closer to neutral than last year, though i am still bearish as a function of risk reward.

if you think i'm so far off then dump all your money into mu today and keep it there. i think you will be sorely disappointed over time.
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