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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology

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To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (519)	10/27/1998 12:21:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (4) of 4690

A lot of opportunities for short term gains just slipped through my fingers, no doubt about that. But I think we see even lower prices within the next year on most of these names. I put 99% of my time into analyzing and valuing individual companies, and I found very few if any large Buffet-type companies were objectively cheap even at the "bottom" we saw a month ago. Which could lead me to one of two conclusions: i) I'm stupid; or ii) the market is so far overvalued that a 20% drop was just the beginning. I have in my back pocket a well-grounded sense of market valuation, which makes me conclude the latter. The way I'm trying to approach this market (its tough now) is to keep my eye on the ball, get prices in mind for where I will buy these companies, and avoid getting sucked in to bear market rallies. Short term trading opportunties slip through my fingers all the time, but that's not my game. I don't think I have missed a once-a-generation buying opportunity, as so many pundits think they just saw. Never in history has one of those opportunities occured when market valuation multiples were so high. Jim

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