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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Janice Shell who wrote (6677)1/5/1997 2:50:00 PM
From: Kashish King   of 42771
 
Given the general unpredictability of stocks, having a 37% historical probability of being correct could be considered impressive for many reasons. Lemme say that I don't know jack about TA but this looks very much like simple arithmetic. Any prediction tool with consistent results other that 50/50 is worth its weight in gold. Clearly that's the case for a tool that is correct 100% of the time or incorrect 100% of the time; it takes a little thought to realize that being correct 51% or incorrect 51% of the time is almost as valuable.

What you have described is something which is incorrect 63% of the time! If those results are consistent, it's worth a fortune. The first thing you do is negate the results and boom you are now correct 63% of the time. The next thing you do is extend the interval in which you apply the predictions and boom you achieve the same results as with the 100% accuracy tool, over slightly more time.

The truth is, there are no such consistencies and no such tools. The 37% is in the process of changing as we speak. By using their tools, you are changing the experiment and adjusting for the change puts you into infinite recursion, sort of an arithmetic black hole. There are far better methods for picking stocks than trying to defy mathematics.

TA Junkies, call: 1-900-FUTURES (first minute free)
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