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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (941)	10/27/1998 1:51:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Chip, While I think that Mr. Cramer WILDLY overstates the case, I do believe that we have a liquidity squeeze going on and possibly a credit crunch in the future. Either way the prescription seems to be that there will be more Fed easing. (What a surprise, the markets already discount much of this.) As long as the numbers keep coming in soft on the economy, like today's Consumer Confidence report, (http://www.conference-board.org/search/dpress.cfm?pressid=4449) you will see a greater likelihood that the Fed's easing will be quick and decisive. Keep your eyes on spending numbers like the retail sales numbers and on the early indicators of weakness in the jobs market; weekly claims, help wanted index, etc. Although much of it is already in the market, I have been a buyer of T-bonds and Eurodollars on the recent weakness. I am still counting on more weak economic numbers in our future. How will a weak economy and an easing Fed play out in the stock market? I'm not sure, but I am shorting this rally in stocks to be safe. -Robert

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