bw, interesting to hear you took my buy-and-hold encouragement to task for only 2 days. That would be long term for me too. <GG>
A big problem for the traders is there are times when they force their money into action when the action really is not there. Said it another way, one has to keep reminding oneself of the virtue of cash in king when one cannot find anything good to do. Otherwise, a buy-and-hold strategy with good blue chip companies will earn 20% a year quite easily over the long run.
Now my takes for the actions going forward:
OSX - the time to short them is near. The recent mo-mo run is about to run out of steam. Nov OPEC meeting is the only realistic event that can hold up the hope for a continuing rally should OPEC makes another round of production cut. Anyone knows when their meeting date is? On the chart, OSX broke through their resistence recently and it appears poised for further gain before they meet their next resistence. The value play, bottom-fishing-the-small-caps momentum we have had in the last 3 weeks is helping them but we are entering the churning phase where dumb money is chasing them for fear of missing the boat. The smart money is beginning to take profit and also eyeing shorting them. The sign would be a flat top and detachment from upper BB surfing for the next 2 days. The trigger would be a general market decline or oil dropping towards $13. But if oil goes to $15, the bet is off.
FGII - $18 is a resistence and if it cannot break through $18 this week, it is a good bet the rollercoaster ride is about to dive.
GIFI - it sold off today apparently its bad fundamentals is catching up with them faster than I thought.
NBR - premium land driller pick but they also have the higher PE of the land drillers. They aren't going anywhere with oil stays low.
VRC - overdone for sure but this will be a good short when the tide turns.
I would stay away from RIG, DO and ATW for now. The shallow water and land drillers will take the plunge first. Then when the sentiment really turns negative, the deepwater will go the second gear.
Gold - today could be the one day technical rebound + Brazil's fear. If US$ reverses role and goes up against most major currencies, gold will lose its lustle faster than one can act. On the other hand, a general market selloff + continuing Brazilian fear may drive gold to $300 again which should translate into about $4-5 gain for NEM.
CCI - Dec put premium is dirt cheap. I am eyeing CCI put.
INTV - $25 is a resistence and it has demonstrated several times it cannot close above $25. I would short it but I already own put. I would take profit in 18-20 but it needs to first pierce below $22.
Value Small caps - if one is long and want to stay long, a good defensive strategy would be to sell near money call immediately. They are overdued for a round of profit taking. Some are already self correcting. However, I expect value players will continue to accumulate this true-value group.
Alski - my DELL is acting better these days. Haven't freezed out on me since Sunday. This is quite a change. Go DELL technical service! |
