I was thinking about this very topic today: "What would it take to pose a direct threat to AMZN or AOL?"
I see the threat in this form: People like AOL because it is a)easy to configure, b) they can get mail anywhere with an aol connection c) they can send mail from anywhere (remember netscape setting are not very portable). People also like AOL's chat rooms. But do people use AOL content? Not all that much. It is pretty much a duplicate of other things found on the web, just more consistently formatted (and frequeently more out-dated). I, for one, use it only to get to the internet, and would use some other provider if I didn't need multiple screen names (another bonus of AOL).
A threat to AOL would have to:
+ have a coast to coast network of local dial-ups
+ new dial-ups locatable via an 1-800 number, which would then hand up and connect you to the local number.
+ allow mail access through HTML or an application that is configurable over the net (so you can use it while not at home)
+ costs half of AOL ($11-$16 per month).
+ some chat rooms would be nice, but not needed. either HTML/CGI or by using ICQ (very nice and already done)
+ doesn't provide formatted content. screw it.
Now AMZN, since that's the board we are on. It seems to me that they have a pretty big problem. They sell books at full price on line, and when you calculate in shipping and handeling, they charge MORE than it would cost you down the street at border's, and you've got to wait 3 days to get it (and deal with post office employees at times). Plus they are paying lots of interest based on debt that they build up building systems that were ground breaking at the time, but now can be purchased off-the-shelf. That money is flying out the door and is doing amzn stockholders no good. Plus, the biggest problem with amzn? THAT HAVE NO BARGIN BOOK BIN!!! The number one drawl into a bookstore for me and many people I know. Want to search art books by price? You can't do it. I find this annoying, and asign that they don't know people as well as they think.
What would it take for someone to duplicate AMZN? 2 million dollars and one year's time. Hardly worth the 6 billion in capitalization.
JK |
