Bosco,
"Tung ah bing fu" translates as "the sick man of East Asia".
I would support the analysis that says the China-Japan rivalry is probably at a crest currently, precipitated by the Asian Economic crisis.
China today of course can probably be described as "the healthy man of East Asia", given the apparent problems with the other economies. It sees the best chance yet of China achieving Regional prominence and status since the glory days of early 18th century Qing dynasty. The fact that China has huge structural problems is of course masked by the fact that it is not an open economy, so we can't see too far behind the "bamboo curtain". This is not going to change any day soon, given the experience of the other Asian countries.
Japan, I would speculate, very lately sees a chance to revive aspects of the East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. I believe Japan at first was hoping that the West would pay to rescue the sick Asian economies. As soon as it became apparent that the G7/IMF initiatives will result in some Asian economies becoming satellite economies of the G7 (of which Japan is a member), the Japanese have lost interest. This is why they have revived the Regional rescue package ($30B to start with). This is getting a very sympathetic hearing from Thailand and Malaysia, and possibly Indonesia. The Koreans of course would never allow themselves to end up being a client state of any resurrected EACPS led by Japan.
So we have a interesting situation here. Will Asia choose to become "client states" of the western capitalists, or of the Japanese capitalists? I think the Asians will divide. I have not speculated about how this will turn out, but I venture an opinion that many Asian leaders have not been impressed by the G7/IMF initiatives (which they perceive as being West led) in terms of its execution, and in terms of its very clumsy and totally insensitive handling. Many Asian leaders feel they have been shafted in the you-know-where by you-know-who.
The fact they have already come out in a circumspect fashion bears testimony to the depth of feelings. By the time there is a chorus of anti-western sentiment from Asia, it will be too late for the US's reputation in Asia going forward. I think this is a real tragedy. The US has currently a real chance to take world leadership, and push "win-win" strategies, but it is not doing so.
Self-interest prevails again on all sides, and East and West have again failed to understand each other - so what's new?
Best,
Steve |
