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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)
LU 2.8200.0%Nov 7 3:59 PM EST
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To: pat mudge who wrote (4811)10/28/1998 10:29:00 AM
From: Techwatch  Read Replies (1) of 21876
 
Pat, regarding Vertical Systems Market Share results... I agree with you that their numbers can be considered accurate and recent. Mr. Fun's time frame is not correct. He was thinking that the time frame was CY97 when Vertical was really forecasting 1998. Their yearly reports are based on 1H actual shipment data and then they extrapulate 2H shipments based on extensive supply and demand side research. Sometimes it is difficult to forecast future shipments from vendors (As an example, I doubt if Vertical expected Fore's ATM sales to Service Providers to drop to $11.2 million in Q3 from $19.5 million in Q2.....and this downward trend was not reflected in Vertical's 1998 report published on 9/30. Similar unexpected downward or upward 2H98 trends could also happen to Newbridge, Ascend, Cisco, whoever)

I also feel that Cahners in-stat and Dell'Oro, who both report on a quarterly basis, can be considered accurate and recent.

As I have stated before, it is very important to look at the trends of market share gains and losses. If you were to look at Vertical Systems 1997 report you would find that they led the Carrier ATM segment with 36% and Ascend barely registered with 5.3% market share. In the course of one year Ascend gained 400% market share while Newbridge lost 30% (at least according to Vertical). Will this continue? Do we need to wait until September 30th of next year to find out? Not really, just look at more than one market sizing firm. Every market share firm slices the pie a little bit different and reports on different time frames. Once you find some common denominators you will find the trends within their reports to have some commonality.

Let us know what you find in the Service Provider space.
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