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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 175.25+0.6%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: Gregg Powers who wrote (17309)10/28/1998 11:03:00 AM
From: Harvey Rosenkrantz  Read Replies (2) of 152472
 
Thanks very much for the information and education.

I agree with you that over time Tim Luke has been very perspicatious about QCOM and usually on target. However, I would postulate that as long as infrastructure sales were above manufacturing break even, handsets will remain capacity constrained, royalties and ASICs will skyrocket with all the new systems and phone manufacturers coming on stream, not to mention growing revenues at Omnitracs (now blessed with a new name) because of expanding the scope of that business. I can't be as elegant as you are quantifying all these effects, but unless there is a recrudescence of a severe economic crisis or a terrible blow on the IPR front, I would wager that Tim's original estimate proves conservative.
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