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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (17274)10/28/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (3) of 152472
 

Be afraid, Maurice. Be very afraid. The claims for CDMA superiority over GSM were based on the premise that GSM development would stand still. As I've noted GSM still has the R&D spending edge over IS-95. I remember the comments on this thread about how GSM technology would only deliver "incremental" improvements, because it is a mature technology. Well, during this year we have seen what kind of "increments" "mature" technology can deliver.

Nokia boosted the standby times of its basic handsets sixfold last February. Now it is delivering 10x capacity improvement in the latest base station gear. This puppy is so compact it can be popped into a telephone booth. And yes, the improvement is over previous GSM network equipment, so the improvement over analog is in the 80x ballpark. There is a stunned silence following Nokia's announcement simply because this took everyone by surprise. Nokia is getting this stuff to market in three quarters - they don't wage two year PR campaigns on future products.

Meanwhile, Qualcomm is only planning to launch the chip that will give decent standby times in handsets (though I'm willing to bet even these can't deliver eight days). The phones will be to market maybe 18 months after Nokia 61xx lineup was launched - and by then Nokia will be coming out with one month standby time models. No word on when CDMA base stations will be closer in size to a Maytag than Mac-truck. It's noteworthy that Nokia is launching this new product in China... this should have a real impact on the CDMA debate there.

BTW, the new Nokia multichannel technology will boost the data traffic rate for GSM handsets to 56 kbps from 14 kbps. So when Qualcomm is launching its 14 kbps smartphone in -99 Nokia can deliver a 56 kbps alternative. With five times longer standby time and lower weight. And Symbian software supported by all major software houses. And Bluetooth supported by all major PC, laptop, fax machine and printer manufacturers. Not to mention innovative color schemes.

Tero

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