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Technology Stocks : ASDV- Aspect Development-THE NEXT MSFT!
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To: Just_Observing who wrote (211)10/28/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: Golfinginthesun   of 414
 
Obviously, I agree with you on the outlook for Aspect. Be sure not to overload on this stock. A few people I know are outsizing this company in their portfolio and at 17 I agree with that but as we approach the mid 30's I would encourage a little bit of balancing. I have little doubt in my mind that we will see 50 very soon though. If we don't achieve it this quarter it would be shortly after the Q4 earnings release in January. One of the dumbest but possibly strongest reasons for the stronger stock health in January will be that the loss due to the acquisition in Q4 FY97 will no longer be included in the 4 qtr trailing P/E. Which will drop the P/E in half overnight. An astute investor has already mathematically done this all year but the people who trade based on raw data (unfortunately a LARGE portion of the Aspect buyers) will freak on this 'news'. Watch and see and I hope you great success.

Remember, there is some risk to this stock. The only reason I think that we have not seen an acceleration in earnings is the lackluster foreign sales. When you start to see that number rise I think you can expect to see an acceleration. If in three years we still have not pushed into the 30 and 40% of sales from foreign sources I would THEN expect to see some slowing in the growth rate as we will be reaching saturation in the domestic market where we would see a large percentage of the sales related to upgrades instead of new sales. So, be careful and we should wait until January before we proclaim me worthy of a free meal. Do you golf?
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