8% CHIP GROWTH IN '99, SAYS IDC CHIP FORECAST/REVIEW FOR 1998-2003 -- International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates the semiconductor market will decline 9.2% to $124.6B in 1998. Sluggish first-half PC demand, collapsing economies and political duress in Asia and Japan, and price turmoil in most market segments eliminated any chance of growth for the semiconductor industry this year, the firm said. Growth in 1999 will be moderate (8%) driven by cutbacks in capacity and capital spending, combined with second half investments in new equipment to resolve the Year 2000 problem. This should kickstart a revenue rise, returning the semiconductor market to double-digit growth by the year 2000. By the year 2003, IDC expects the total semiconductor market will reach $232B. According to IDC's report, Semiconductor Market Forecast and Review, 1998-2003, the memory market's three-year recession will not be over until 2H99 when supply and demand come into balance and prices stabilize. Total memory revenue is expected to grow by a modest 5.5% in 1999 to $22.9B after a decline of 26% in 1998. Healthy bit growth of 60%, major capacity cutbacks, market exodus and mega-mergers by DRAM suppliers, combined with a gradual increase in DRAM pricing by 2H99, will help drive memory revenue up in 1999 and beyond. IDC's 8% growth rate forecast for 1999 is a reduction from a mid- March estimate of 16.5%. "With recovery or improvement in Asia and Japan not expected to start until the second half of 1999, we cannot expect to see double digit growth for the semiconductor market next year," said Mario Morales, IDC's Research Director, Semiconductors. Weakness is evident in nearly all market segments this year, the firm said. The microprocessor market, which averaged 28.2 percent growth over the past two years, is only projected to grow at 1.7 percent in 1998, to $23.9B. The microprocessor market will return to double-digit growth in 1999, equaling $27.1 billion, increasing by 13.7% compared to less than 2 percent growth in 1998. Increased competition in the desktop arena, as well as the trend toward sub-$1,000 PCs had a negative impact on prices, and restrained PC demand has held down unit growth, cited IDC. Total DRAM revenues will grow almost 7 percent to equal $13.8B in 1999. The U.S. semiconductor market will reach revenues of $81.3B in 2003. European consumption share increased faster than Japan and Asia Pacific in 1998. By 1999, Japan's consumption share will be less than half the market it controlled in 1988. IDC: 650 962-6498.
Not really related to PC's, but I find the idea of these micro ball shaped IC's fascinating. Don't know what they are good for, but fascinating.
Regards, Mark
BALL SEMI FABS WORKING TRANSISTOR ON 1mm SPHERE -- BALL Semiconductor, Inc., the Allen, Texas-based start-up developing technology to manufacture semiconductors on silicon spheres rather than wafers, reported it fabricated a working transistor on a one-millimeter silicon sphere. The transistor was said to be a 5-micron NMOS transistor with "electrical characteristics (equal to) those of a traditional wafer transistor." BALL Semi said it is working on producing an electrically functioning IC on a 1mm sphere, inductance on the sphere and a pilot manufacturing line. Through working on spheres rather than wafers, BALL Semi hopes to reduce the cost of making chips by up to 90%. BALL Semiconductor: 972 359-2400. |
