Response:
Net is alive - the dial data download tonight fixed all the corrupted data and after some more testing I will run SEG along with everything else (one happy camper here...)
TA never really works any more than it fails. It is a backward look at the market and never believe anything else. The value of it is that it does work often enough to be useful. TA indicators reflect the pricec volume, momentum, trend and other aspects of equities over the course of time. When momentum is in place, then those indicators work well. When cyclicals are surging, then they work, and when there is creeping growth to price and volume, that will work if you figure that out in time. But indicators drift because the motivation and risk adversity of the market players changes. And all we are really doing is trying to assess the temperment of that trading mass, mostly funds and large buyers like brokerages, and play along. Some TA methods filter the news and intraday spikes and sub-sector influences and in doing so make the market patterns appear predictable.
It isn't. Of all the elements in play, trendling works, intraday as well as daily and weekly or monthly, because it applies the basic rule: If the stock is going up, its going up, and if it is going down, its going down.
yes, one can beat the jump by doing fundamental analysis, or get an early warning system in place by neurally and/or technically (and with decades of looking at stock movments) seek out patterns that are indicative of share price movement. But in the end it boils down to decisiveness and discipline and persistence and good risk management.
If you can learn to paper trade effectively and them ove to real trades and learn the lessons each will teach, and along the way experiment and refine whatever method (FA/TA/NA) works for you then use it. If it doesn't, it isn't the fault of the tool or you or the market, it just isnt the right mix.
Yes, to finally answer your question, TA is working well this week - actually since Oct. 8 when the bull reversal started. But remember what the Greeks taught us about Hubris - the act of feeling cocky when things are going our way - it is followed inevitably and inexorably by something called Nemesis. It is never what we did that worked well that matters, but what we are using next.
Can you tell I couldn't get online this afternoon?
As for the Cup and Handle, I will find an example. But please trust that if John Kim or Alien or I or someone who knows what it looks like ever finds one, we will post it.
lastshadow |
