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Pastimes : Carl Sagan Memorial Thread
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To: greenspirit who wrote (17)1/6/1997 9:49:00 AM
From: Tom Smith   of 103
 
Michael,

Yes, it's true that Sagan overestimated the impact of Sadaam's environmental terrorism. Years earlier, Sagan also seems to have overestimated the potential climatic impact of a limited nuclear war in his "nuclear winter" theory. (Let's hope we never have the opportunity to know for sure.)

Even though his case on the Gulf oil fields was overstated, I believe it was beneficial for Sagan to express his thoughts on the subject because it made us more prepared to deal with the situation when it unfolded. Concern about the environmental impact of the fires energized the bureaucracy and helped to ensure that the people and materials were in place to extinguish the fires much faster than was commonly thought possible.

Tom
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